In March I celebrated my 33^rd year as a licensed real estate practitioner. I can tell you that in 33 years, the real estate industry has never had to deal with a situation quite like the COVID-19 outbreak.

Real estate is a unique industry

Real estate practitioners are salespeople whose job it is to market and sell property, but people live in the ‘inventory’ that they sell. This means that the owners/occupants of properties for sale must regularly allow germy strangers into their homes.

It makes me wonder how many times the owners/occupants of listed homes contracted a cold or the flu from a prospective buyer or Realtor® pre COVID-19.

On March 23, 2020 the Alberta Real Estate Association prohibited its members from hosting open houses to protect public safety in response to COVID-19. Real estate has since been deemed an essential service by the Government of Alberta but as of this writing (June 4) the prohibition is still in effect.

In the case of Realtor® scheduled showings in Alberta, prospective buyers are accompanied by a licensed professional who must abide by the Rules and Regulations of the Real Estate Act administered by our regulator, the Real Estate Council of Alberta (RECA), as well as the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) Rules, and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) REALTOR® Code of Ethics.

The Real Estate Council of Alberta, the Alberta Real Estate Association and the Calgary Real Estate Board have all instituted new recommended protocols for property showings and new forms, checklists and health questionnaires for our use.

So what does this mean for someone who is considering either buying or selling a home in Calgary right now?

Buyers wishing to VIEW a home for sale…

Many Realtor®s are offering virtual showing options which can include real time virtual open houses, pre-filmed virtual walk-throughs, or Realtor® only showings using Facetime, WhatsApp, Google Meet, Zoom, or other video meeting platforms to ‘show’ the buyer the property.

For in-person showings, individual brokerages can have different policies. For example:

• The listing Realtor®’s brokerage may require the buyers to complete a health questionnaire (COVID19 Checklist for Buyers) within enough time to allow the seller to review the questionnaire prior to the showing.
  • If the seller is uncomfortable with the prospective buyers’ or their Realtor®’s answers, the sellers can refuse the showing.
• If they allow the showing and the home is occupied, the seller may require the buyers to wear masks and gloves and may require a ‘touchless’ showing, where the buyers promise not to touch any surface.
• The seller/occupant will prepare the property by turning on all of the lights and leaving cupboard doors ajar. Only the Realtor® may touch what is required to access and then secure the property after their departure.

Should an offer be made and accepted, the same process is repeated for inspectors, appraisers and service providers who need access to the property during the conditional period.

In general, buyers will need to review the recent sale prices of similar properties, the list price of competing properties and the forecast of market conditions for the market segment of a particular property when choosing an offer value.

Sellers wishing to LIST a home for sale…

As mentioned above, it is important to note that brokerages may have their own policies in place, and may be in addition to the protocols recommended by all of the earlier mentioned governing bodies.

During the process of preparing your property for sale you may require that service providers such as photographers, videographers, measurement specialists and stagers complete the (COVID CONTRACTOR Disclosure Form) within enough time for you to review it prior to their visit.

The MLS® system remains the same except that more Realtors® are including video links.

Where you will likely experience a change due to COVID-19 is during the marketing process for your home. For instance:

• Open houses are currently not permitted.
• Your Realtor® may provide ‘virtual’ open houses or showings.
• Prior to a showing, you may be expected to turn on all of the lights and leave all cupboard doors ajar.
• You may be required to complete a health questionnaire (COVID19 Checklist for Sellers Agents) within enough time to allow the buyer to review the questionnaire prior to the showing.
• You may wish to review the answers from the buyer questionnaire and may accept or refuse the showing based on their answers.

All of this is in effort to avoid those tiny little invisible yet potentially dangerous germs.

How much of this will continue to exist when the economy is fully relaunched and if/when a vaccine is available remains to be seen.

And now for the question on everyone’s minds…

How will COVID-19 affect the Calgary real estate market?

Let me just consult my crystal ball.

The real estate market in general in Calgary has been correcting since the peak of 2014. The apartment market segment in Calgary has been correcting since its peak in 2008. The Chief Economist for the Calgary Real Estate Board, Ann-Marie Lurie, in the updated CREB® Calgary Economic & Housing Outlook has predicted that 2020 sales are forecasted to fall by 22% and that the City-wide benchmark price is forecasted to ease by 3% this year.

In Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation’s Housing Market Outlook SPECIAL EDITION – SPRING 2020 Forecast it predicts that the Alberta MLS® Average Price will drop 9.67% – 16.14% over the next two years.

• Download: Canada Mortgage Housing Corporations Housing Market Outlook SPECIAL EDITION – SPRING 2020 Forecast
• Download: CREB® Calgary Economic & Housing Outlook 2020

Because each market segment, community and price range will experience different levels of impact, it is very important to consult a real estate professional for market specific data.

Weekly sales for homes in Calgary 2020

Having said all of that…I have been tracking the number of weekly sales for detached homes in Calgary, in segmented price ranges, since March 1^st. In the $500,000.00 and under segment the number of sales from May 24th – May 30th was 123. May 17th – May 23rd recorded 117 sales. These are the highest numbers of weekly sales since March 1st, up considerably from the week of May 10th – May 16th which saw sales of 87. At the time, 112 sales had been the highest number of weekly sales since March 1^st and was only 33 sales lower than the same week in 2019. Clearly there is some pent-up demand.

To see the chart of sales by price range, CONTACT US and we will be happy to send you the data.

In general, sellers will need to be realistic about their list price and should look to the recent sale prices of similar properties, the list price of competing properties and the forecast of market conditions for their market segment when deciding how to price their property.

If you have any questions, please reach out to me via email: susanita@cbcalgary.ca or call us at 403-686-1455. I am happy to discuss your unique circumstances at any time.

Susanita de Diego

COVID-19’s impact on Calgary housing market continues

Housing Market Facts

Calgary real estate market feeling impact of COVID-19

2020 opens with a slight gain in sales

City of Calgary, February 2020 – Housing market conditions continue to follow similar trends to last year, with gains in sales.

At the same time, there have been further reductions in new listings, inventory and more declines in prices. January sales activity was 863 units, nearly eight percent higher than last year’s levels. While sales remained well below January activity recorded before 2014, they remain consistent with activity recorded over the past five years.

“A persistent slowdown in the energy sector has resulted in a reset in many aspects of our economy. This includes the housing market,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “We continue to see the slow adjustment to more balanced conditions, but it will take time before that starts to translate into price stability.”

Citywide unadjusted benchmark prices were $417,100 in January. This is slightly lower than the previous month and nearly one percent lower than last year’s levels.

Benchmark prices eased, but there were some modest improvements in both the average and median prices. This is likely a reflection of some changes in the distribution of sales.

Housing Market Facts

Detached Sector

• Detached sales in January improved by six percent, thanks to growth in all districts except the North East.
• New listings declined by nearly 11 percent due to pullbacks in all areas except the City Centre and the North districts. Combined with adjustments in sales, this caused inventories to ease by 15 percent citywide.
• Reductions in supply and gains in sales supported reductions in the months of supply from nearly six months last year to just under five months this January.
• Detached benchmark prices eased by nearly one percent compared to last year. However, the only two areas to record notable year-over-year declines were the City Centre and West, with price declines exceeding three percent.

Apartment Sector

• Improving sales were met with gains in new listings, causing inventories to increase by 12 percent compared to last year.
• The gain in inventories prevented any significant adjustment in the months of supply, which remained elevated at nine months.
• The persistent oversupply continued to weigh on benchmark prices, which eased compared to last month and declined by two percent compared to last year.

Attached Sector

• Despite slower sales in the South and South east district, city-wide attached sales improved by four percent. At the same time new listings eased by nearly 18 percent, causing inventories to decline by ten percent.
• Improving sales and a drop in inventory helped the months of supply to dip below seven months, a significant improvement compared to last year’s level of nearly eight months.
• While this segment is trending toward more balanced conditions, persistent oversupply continues to weigh on prices, which trended down over the previous month and eased by over one percent compared to last year’s levels.

View the full report here: January 2020 Statistics Report

Housing Market Facts

Detached Sector

• Detached sales improved in November over last year’s levels, mostly due to growth in the $400,000 – 500,000 range. However, sales in November and overall activity remain low by historical standards.
• Despite some recent gains in sales activity, year-to-date sales remain comparable to last year’s levels and 20 percent below longer-term trends. However, detached sales have improved in both the North West and South districts this year.
• Improving sales, combined with further declines in new listings, helped reduce inventories in this sector compared to levels recorded last year. However, supply levels remained elevated based on seasonal comparisons.
• Like some of the other sectors, the detached market is slowly moving toward more balanced conditions. However, it is still oversupplied, and this trend continues to weigh on prices.
• The detached unadjusted benchmark price was $481,500 in November, slightly lower than last month’s levels and two percent below last year’s prices.

Apartment Sector

• Apartment sales pulled back this month, causing year-to-date sales to remain comparable to last year’s levels and 21 percent below long-term averages.
• The monthly decline in sales was mostly driven by pullbacks in the City Centre, North West and South East districts. However, on a year-to-date basis, sales activity improved in the North, West and South East districts.
• New listings rose across most districts, causing city-wide inventory gains this month. Much of the gains were a result of a rise in new-home listings filtering into the resale market. Despite the monthly shift, year-to-date new listings and inventories remain lower than last year’s levels.
• Weaker sales, combined with rising inventories, pushed November months of supply to over seven months. This is higher than last year’s levels of more than five months.
• Persistent oversupply in this sector caused prices to ease. The year-to-date benchmark price declined by more than two percent.

Attached Sector

View the full report here: November 2019 Statistics Report

Housing Market Facts

Detached Sector

• Sales activity this month came in just above last year’s levels, thanks to growth in all districts except the North East and North. However, year-to-date citywide levels remain comparable to last year’s levels and over 19 percent lower than longer-term trends.
• New listings continued to ease this month, but at a slower pace than levels recorded over the past eight months.
• Improvements in sales and easing new listings brought down inventory levels by 15 percent. With 3,391 units in inventory, the months of supply is just under four months. This is a decline compared to last year, but it is still high based on longer-term trends. Months of supply eased across all districts except the North, likely due to the increased pressure coming from the new home sector.
• Unadjusted benchmark prices eased over the previous month due to declines in all districts except the South East and East. Overall, prices in October remained nearly two percent lower than last year’s levels and nearly eight percent lower than previous highs.

Apartment Sector

• Apartment sales continued to improve this month and new listings eased. This helped reduce inventory levels and brought the months of supply down just under 6 months. Despite improvements, the market remained firmly in buyers’ territory.
• Year-to-date improvements in sales were driven by gains in the North, West and South East sectors. Inventory declines have occurred in all districts except the South East.
• Overall, year-to-date prices remained over two percent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 17 percent lower than peak pricing. However, there are some signs of stabilization in prices this year, with prices in the North East, South East and East remaining comparable to last year.

Attached Sector

• The attached market continues to show the largest increase in sales, with year-to-date growth of nearly seven percent. Improvements occurred across all districts except for the North West and North East.
• New listings have eased by eight percent so far this year, causing inventory declines and reductions in the amount of oversupply.
• Like most sectors, this segment remains oversupplied, which is causing price adjustments. As of October, semi-detached and row prices remained two and four percent lower than last year’s levels, respectively. Prices continue to ease across nearly all districts and remain well below previous highs.

Download the full report here: October 2019 Statistics Newsletter

Housing Market Facts

Detached

Attached