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Prices Rise as Conditions Favour the Seller – March 2023 Real Estate Statistics Report

Sunday, April 16th, 2023

Prices Rise as Conditions Favour the Seller

City of Calgary, April 2023

Sales and new listings have improved over the levels reported at the beginning of the year. As a result, the spread between sales and new listings supported some expected monthly inventory level gains. However, the 3,233 available units reflected the lowest March inventory levels since 2006 and left the months of supply just above one month, firmly in the seller’s territory. While conditions are not as tight as last March, low inventory levels leave purchasers with limited choice, once again driving up home prices.

Total unadjusted residential home prices reached $541,800 in March, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly one per cent higher than prices reported last year. While prices remain below the May 2022 high of $546,000, the pace of price growth over the first quarter has been stronger than expected due to the persistent seller’s market conditions. “As expected, sales have eased from record levels while remaining stronger than they were before the pandemic thanks to recent gains in migration supporting demand,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “The challenge has been centered around supply. As a result, existing homeowners may be reluctant to list as they struggle to find an acceptable housing alternative in this market. At the same time, higher lending rates can also reduce the incentives for existing homeowners to list their home.”

March recorded 3,318 new listings compared to the 2,432 sales, leaving the sales-to-new listings ratio relatively high at 73 per cent. However, both sales and new listings have eased by 40 per cent compared to levels reported last March.

View the full report here: March 2023 Real Estate Statistics Report

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Lowest February inventory since 2006 – February 2023 Real Estate Statistics Report

Tuesday, March 7th, 2023

Lowest February inventory since 2006

City of Calgary, March 2023

Consistent with typical seasonal behavior sales, new listings and inventory levels all trended up compared to last month. However, with 1,740 sales and 2,389 new listings, inventory levels improved only slightly over the last month and remained amongst the lowest February levels seen since 2006. “While higher lending rates are impacting sales activity as expected, we are seeing a stronger pullback in new listings, keeping supply levels low and supporting some stronger-than-expected monthly price gains,” said CREB® Chief Economist AnnMarie Lurie. “Prices are still below the May 2022 peak and it is still early in the year. However, if we do not see a shift in supply, we could see further upward pressure on prices over the near term.”

Both sales and new listings declined over last year’s record high for the month. While sales activity remained stronger than long-term trends and levels reported throughout the 2015 to 2020 period, new listings fell below long-term trends. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 73 per cent and a months of supply of under two months, the market has struggled to move into balanced territory causing further upward pressure on home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price increased by nearly two per cent over January levels and last year’s prices.

View the full report here: February 2023 Statistics Report

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Supply of lower-priced homes remains low for January – January 2023 Real Estate Statistics Report

Tuesday, February 14th, 2023

Supply of lower-priced homes remains low for January

City of Calgary, February 2023

The level of new listings in January fell to the lowest levels seen since the late 90s. While new listings fell in nearly every price range, the pace of decline was higher for lower-priced properties.

At the same time, sales activity did slow compared to the high levels reported last year but remained consistent with long-term trends. However, there has been a shift in the composition of sales as detached homes only comprised 47 per cent of all sales.

“Higher lending rates are causing many buyers to seek out lower-priced products in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, the higher rates are likely also preventing some move-up activity in the market impacting supply growth for lowerpriced homes. This is causing differing conditions in the housing market based on price range.”

With 2,451 units available in inventory, levels remain 43 per cent lower than long-term trends for the month. While overall inventory levels are slightly lower than last January, there is significant variation by price range. Homes priced under $500,000 reported year-over-year inventory declines of nearly 30 per cent while inventory levels improved for homes prices above that level.

Although conditions are not as tight as last year, lower supply levels are preventing a significant shift toward balanced conditions and prices did trend up slightly over last month breaking the seven consecutive month slide. As of January, the benchmark price reached $520,900, 5 per cent higher than last January, but still well below the May 2022 high of $546,000.

View the full report here: January 2023 Statistics Report

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2022 saw record-high sales and double-digit price growth – December 2022 Real Estate Statistics

Thursday, January 12th, 2023

2022 saw record-high sales and double-digit price growth

City of Calgary, January 2023

December sales eased, however, slowing sales over the second half of 2022 were not enough to offset earlier gains as sales reached a record high of 29,672 units in 2022.

Over the past several months, the pullback in sales was also met with a significant pullback in new listings, causing further declines in inventory levels. As of December, there were 2,214 units available in Inventory, making it the lowest level of inventory reported for December in over a decade.

“Housing market conditions have changed significantly throughout the year, as sales activity slowed following steep rate gains throughout the later part of the year,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, Calgary continues to report activity that is better than levels seen before the pandemic and higher than long-term trends for the city. At the same time, we have faced persistently low inventory levels, which have prevented a more significant adjustment in home prices this year.”

Benchmark prices eased to $518,800 in December, down nearly five percent from the peak price in May but almost eight percent higher than last December. While prices have trended down annually, they remain over 12 percent higher than last year’s levels.

View the full report here: December 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

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2022 on track to be a record year for sales – November 2022 Real Estate Statistics

Wednesday, December 7th, 2022

2022 on track to be a record year for sales

City of Calgary, December 2022

Residential sales in the city slowed to 1,648 units, a year-over-year decline of 22 per cent, but 12 per cent above the 10-year average.

The pullback in sales over the past six months was not enough to erase gains from earlier in the year as year-to-date sales remain nearly 10 per cent above last year’s record high. The year-to-date sales growth has been driven by a surge in both apartment condominium and row sales.

“Easing sales have been driven mostly by declines in the detached sector of the market. Higher lending rates are impacting purchasers buying power and limited supply choice in the lower price ranges of the detached market is likely causing many purchasers to place buying decisions on hold.”

A decline in sales was met with a pullback in new listings and inventories fell to the lowest level reported in November since 2005. The pullback in both sales and new listings kept the months of supply relatively tight at below two months. The tightest conditions are occurring in the lower-price ranges as supply growth has mostly been driven by gains in the upper end of the market.

Despite the lower supply levels, prices have trended down from the peak reached in May of this year. Even with the adjustments that have occurred, November benchmark prices continue to remain nearly nine per cent higher than levels reported last year.

View the full report here: November 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

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Sales remain stronger than pre-covid levels – October 2022 Real Estate Statistics

Wednesday, November 16th, 2022

Sales remain stronger than pre-covid levels

City of Calgary, November 2022

October sales eased compared to last year’s levels, mostly due to slower activity in the detached sector.

However, with 1,857 sales this month, levels are still stronger than long-term trends and activity reported prior to the pandemic. Year-to-date sales have reached 26,823 and with only two months to go, 2022 will likely post a record year in terms of sales.

“Calgary hasn’t seen the same degree of pullback in housing sales like other parts of Canada, thanks to persistently strong demand for our higher density product,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While our city is not immune to the impact that inflation and higher rates are having, strong employment growth, positive migration flows and a stronger commodity market are helping offset some of that impact.”

New listings also trended down this month causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to rise to 85 per cent and inventories to trend down. Much of the inventory decline has been driven by product priced below $500,000.

While conditions are not a tight as what was seen earlier in the year, with only two months of supply, conditions remain tighter than historical levels. We are also seeing divergent trends in the market with conditions continuing to favour the seller in the lower-price ranges and shifting to more balanced conditions in the upper-price ranges.

As of October, prices have eased by four per cent relative to the highs reached in May. This is considered a relatively small adjustment when considering price movements in other large cities. It is also important to note that the October benchmark price is still nearly 10 per cent higher than levels reported last year.

View the full report here: October 2022 Statistics Report

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Demand shifting to more affordable options – September 2022 Real Estate Statistics

Wednesday, October 12th, 2022

Demand shifting to more affordable options

City of Calgary, October 2022

Strong sales for condominium apartment and row properties was not enough to offset declines reported for other property types. This caused city sales to ease by nearly 12 per cent compared to last year. However, with 1,901 sales in September, activity is still far stronger than levels achieved prior to the pandemic and is well above long-term trends for September. Despite recent pullbacks in sales and thanks to strong levels earlier in the year, year-to-date sales remain 15 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

“While demand is easing especially for higher priced detached and semi-detached product, purchasers are still active in the affordable segments of the market, cushioning much of the impact on sales,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, we are seeing new listings ease, preventing the market from becoming oversupplied and supporting more balanced conditions.”

In September, new listings declined by ten per cent. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 72 per cent it was enough to prevent any gain in inventory levels, which declined over last month and were nearly 21 per cent lower than last year’s levels. The adjustments in both sales and supply levels have caused the months of supply to remain relatively low at less than three months.

The shift to more balanced conditions is causing some adjustments to home prices. While prices have slid from the highs seen in May, as of September, benchmark prices remain 11 per cent higher than last year and six per cent higher than levels reported at the beginning of the year.

View the full report here: September 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

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Supply levels ease with fewer new listings in August – August 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

Saturday, September 10th, 2022

Supply levels ease with fewer new listings in August

City of Calgary, September 2022

August sales activity was comparable to the strong levels recorded last year and well above long-term trends for the month. While sales have remained relatively strong, there continues to be a shift towards more affordable options as the year-over-year pullback in detached sales was nearly matched by gains for multi-family product types.

“While higher lending rates have slowed activity in the detached market, we are still seeing homebuyers shift to more affordable options which is keeping sales activity relatively strong,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “This makes Calgary different than some of the larger cities in the country which have recorded significant pullbacks in sales.”

At the same time, new listings continue to trend down, preventing any supply gains or a substantial shift in the months of supply. Despite year-over-year gains in new listings, the spread between new listings and sales this month narrowed compared to the past three months. This caused total inventory to trend down and prevented any significant shift in the months of supply. The months of supply in August remained at just above two months, not at tight as earlier in the year, but still below levels traditionally seen this time of year.

For the third month in a row, benchmark prices eased declining to $531,800. While the reduction reflects shifting market conditions, it is important to note that previous gains are not lost, and prices remain over 11 per cent higher than last year.

View the full report here: August 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

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Detached home sales decline as apartment condominium sales rise – July 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

Saturday, August 6th, 2022

Detached home sales decline as apartment condominium sales rise

City of Calgary, August 2022

Significant slowdowns in the detached and semi-detached market were nearly offset by sales growth in the apartment and row sectors. This left July sales three per cent lower than levels recorded last year. While this is the second month where sales activity has slowed, total residential sales this month are still amongst the strongest levels recorded in our market.

“Rising lending rates are causing shifts within the market and, as a result, new listings for higher-priced product are on the rise relative to sales activity,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Meanwhile, there continues to be a lack of supply for lower-priced detached and semi-detached product. This is driving consumers who are looking for affordable homes to purchase apartment- and row-style properties.”

Residential new listings in the city declined compared to what was seen in 2021, but when considering the dynamics between price ranges, we are seeing a different trend play out. Listings for homes priced below $500,000 fell by 18 percent, while levels rose by 20 per cent for homes priced above $500,000. This has left conditions to remain relatively tight in the lower-end of the market while conditions are shifting toward more balanced levels in the upper-end of the market.

When considering the relationship between the supply and demand, the months of supply has continued to trend up from the exceptionally tight conditions seen earlier in the year. However, with just over two months of supply, the market remains far tighter than anything experienced throughout the recessionary period experienced prior to the pandemic.

As expected, the benchmark price did see some slippage relative to levels seen earlier in the year and rising lending rates have cooled much of the bidding war activity that was driving significant gains earlier in the year. However, prices currently remain over 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels, still outpacing forecasted price growth for the year.

“As we move forward, we do anticipate further rate gains will weigh on housing activity and prices, but not enough to completely offset the exceptionally strong gains recorded over the first half of the year,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

View the full report here: July 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

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Market starts to shift as sales slow – June 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

Wednesday, July 13th, 2022

Market Starts to Shift as Sales Slow

City of Calgary, July 2022

Sales activity in June eased relative to the past several months and with 2,842 sales, levels declined by two percent over last year’s record high. While sales activity has remained relatively strong for June levels, the decline was driven by a pullback in detached and semi-detached home sales.

“As expected, higher interest rates are starting to have an impact on home sales. This is helping shift the market toward more balanced conditions and taking some of the pressure off prices,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“While we are starting to see some transition, it is important to note that in Calgary year-to-date sales are still at record levels and prices are still far above expectations for the year.” This pullback in sales was not met with the same level of pullback in new listings. This caused inventories to trend up over previous months. These shifts are supporting some easing from the exceptionally tight conditions as the months of supply remained just shy of two months. While two months is still considered low for our market, it is a significant change over the one month of supply recorded earlier in the year.

After three months of gradual gains in the months of supply, prices eased slightly relative to last month. However, with a city-wide benchmark price of $543,900, levels are still over 13 per cent higher than last year. With further rate gains expected, we could continue to see slower sales activity and some monthly price growth slippage in the Calgary market in the coming months. However, thanks to renewed migration and job growth in a wide range of sectors, it is unlikely that we will see a full reversal of the price gains made so far this year.

View the full report here: June 2022 Statistics

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