Demand shifting to more affordable options

City of Calgary, October 2022

Supply levels ease with fewer new listings in August

City of Calgary, September 2022

Detached home sales decline as apartment condominium sales rise

City of Calgary, August 2022

Significant slowdowns in the detached and semi-detached market were nearly offset by sales growth in the apartment and row sectors. This left July sales three per cent lower than levels recorded last year. While this is the second month where sales activity has slowed, total residential sales this month are still amongst the strongest levels recorded in our market.

“Rising lending rates are causing shifts within the market and, as a result, new listings for higher-priced product are on the rise relative to sales activity,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Meanwhile, there continues to be a lack of supply for lower-priced detached and semi-detached product. This is driving consumers who are looking for affordable homes to purchase apartment- and row-style properties.”

Residential new listings in the city declined compared to what was seen in 2021, but when considering the dynamics between price ranges, we are seeing a different trend play out. Listings for homes priced below $500,000 fell by 18 percent, while levels rose by 20 per cent for homes priced above $500,000. This has left conditions to remain relatively tight in the lower-end of the market while conditions are shifting toward more balanced levels in the upper-end of the market.

When considering the relationship between the supply and demand, the months of supply has continued to trend up from the exceptionally tight conditions seen earlier in the year. However, with just over two months of supply, the market remains far tighter than anything experienced throughout the recessionary period experienced prior to the pandemic.

As expected, the benchmark price did see some slippage relative to levels seen earlier in the year and rising lending rates have cooled much of the bidding war activity that was driving significant gains earlier in the year. However, prices currently remain over 12 per cent higher than last year’s levels, still outpacing forecasted price growth for the year.

“As we move forward, we do anticipate further rate gains will weigh on housing activity and prices, but not enough to completely offset the exceptionally strong gains recorded over the first half of the year,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

View the full report here: July 2022 Real Estate Statistics Report

Market Starts to Shift as Sales Slow

City of Calgary, July 2022

Sales activity in June eased relative to the past several months and with 2,842 sales, levels declined by two percent over last year’s record high. While sales activity has remained relatively strong for June levels, the decline was driven by a pullback in detached and semi-detached home sales.

“As expected, higher interest rates are starting to have an impact on home sales. This is helping shift the market toward more balanced conditions and taking some of the pressure off prices,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“While we are starting to see some transition, it is important to note that in Calgary year-to-date sales are still at record levels and prices are still far above expectations for the year.” This pullback in sales was not met with the same level of pullback in new listings. This caused inventories to trend up over previous months. These shifts are supporting some easing from the exceptionally tight conditions as the months of supply remained just shy of two months. While two months is still considered low for our market, it is a significant change over the one month of supply recorded earlier in the year.

After three months of gradual gains in the months of supply, prices eased slightly relative to last month. However, with a city-wide benchmark price of $543,900, levels are still over 13 per cent higher than last year. With further rate gains expected, we could continue to see slower sales activity and some monthly price growth slippage in the Calgary market in the coming months. However, thanks to renewed migration and job growth in a wide range of sectors, it is unlikely that we will see a full reversal of the price gains made so far this year.

View the full report here: June 2022 Statistics

Market Continues to Favour the Seller Despite Slowing Sales

City of Calgary, June 2022

For the second month in a row, sales activity trended down after all-time record high sales in March. While activity in the market slowed down in May with 3,071 sales, levels are still slightly higher than last year’s record high and are far stronger than typical levels of activity recorded in May.

“It’s not a surprise to see sales ease from the exceptionally strong levels seen earlier in the year. Many buyers were eager to get into the market ahead of the rate gains that we are now seeing,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

“While higher lending rates are weighing on sales activity, the market is still struggling with supply levels and rising prices which could also be contributing to slower sales, especially in the detached market. Nonetheless, if this shift continues, we could begin to see more balanced conditions in the market over the next several months, slowing the pace of price growth in the market.”

Slower sales were met with a decline in new listings, but a strong pullback in sales was enough to cause inventories to trend up relative to levels seen over the past few months. While inventory remains well below historical norms, the monthly gains did take off some of the pressure in the market. However, with just under two months of supply, the market continues to favour the seller.

Tight market conditions continue to contribute to further price gains in the market, but the pace of growth has eased relative to what occurred over the previous four months. Overall, the benchmark price reached $546,000 in May, over 14 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

View the full report here: May 2022 Statistics

Sellers Market Conditions Continue in April

City of Calgary, May 2022

Following an all-time record high month of sales in March, activity slowed down in April. However, with 3,401 sales this month, it was still a gain of six per cent over last year and a record high for the month of April.

“Despite some of the monthly pullback, it is important to note that sales remain exceptionally strong and are likely being limited due to supply choice in the market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann- Marie Lurie. “While further rate increases will likely start to dampen demand later this year, more pullbacks in new listings this month are ensuring the market continues to favour the seller, resulting in further price gains.

New listings trended down relative to last month and levels recorded last year. With the sales-to-new listings ratio remaining above 74 per cent, there was not much of a shift in overall inventory levels. With 4,850 units in inventory, we are no where near record low inventory levels, however, levels are far lower than what was recorded in April since 2014. What has changed in the market is the composition of the inventory levels.

When comparing inventories today to what was available in 2014, we can see that detached homes comprise of a smaller share of the inventory levels especially for properties priced below $500,000. Overall, the Calgary market has seen the months of supply remain below two months since November of last year, placing significant upward pressure on prices. The benchmark price in April reached $526,700, which is nearly two per cent higher than last month and 17 per cent higher than last year.

View the full report here: April 2022 Statistics

Record high sales seen again in March

City of Calgary, April 202

For the second month in a row, sales activity not only reached a monthly high but also hit new record highs for any given month. Gains occurred across every property type as they all hit new record highs.

An increase in new listings this month helped support the growth in sales activity. However, inventories have remained relatively low, ensuring the market continues to favour the seller.

“While supply levels have improved from levels seen over the past four months, inventory levels are still well below what we traditionally see in March, thanks to stronger than expected sales activity,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “With just over one month of supply in the market, the persistently tight market conditions continue to place significant upward pressure on prices.”

With an unadjusted benchmark price of $518,600 this month, the monthly gain increased by another four percent. After three consecutive gains, prices have risen by nearly $55,000 since December and currently sit nearly 18 per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Despite the strong start to the year, price gains and rising lending rates are expected to weigh on demand in the second half of this year. Nonetheless, persistently tight conditions will likely continue to impact the market over the next several months.

View the full report here: March 2022 Statistics

Sales Continue to Surge as Listings Rise

City of Calgary, March 2022

Thanks to a surge in new listings, sales activity reached a record high for the month of February with 3,305 sales. The rise in new listings caused adjusted inventories to rise above last months levels. However, with only one month of supply, the market continues to favour the seller.

“Sales have been somewhat restricted by the lack of supply choice in the market. While sellers did respond with a record level of new listings this month, the demand has been so strong that the housing market continues to remain undersupplied causing further price gains,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

The total residential benchmark price for the city rose by nearly six per cent over January levels and was over 16 per cent higher than levels recorded last February. Much of the growth has been driven by the detached segment of the market which has not seen conditions this tight in over 15 years.

This is the fourth consecutive month that the market has dealt with conditions that are far tighter than what the city experienced last spring. While the gains in new listings will help provide choice to purchasers and eventually support more balanced conditions, it will take some time to work through the demand in the market.

View the full report here: February 2022 Statistics Report

Sellers’ market conditions continue to impact prices

City of Calgary, February 2022

 
Thanks to persistently strong sales, inventory levels in the city eased to 2,620 units, the lowest levels seen since 2006. This caused the months of supply to remain exceptionally low for this time of year at 1.3 months.
 
The tight market conditions contributed to further upward pressure on prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in January reached $472,300, a monthly gain of nearly two percent and a year over-year gain of 12 percent.
 
“Expected gains in lending rates are contributing to persistently strong demand in the housing market, as purchasers are eager to get ahead of any increases,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann- Marie Lurie.
 
“We did see more listings this month, but it did little to change the market balance or take any pressure off prices. This was expected, as these conditions should persist for several more months.”
 
There were 2,009 sales in January, well below record levels, but over 98 per cent higher than long-term trends. At the same time, 2,476 new listings came onto the market, resulting in a sales-to- new listings ratio of 81 percent. This is far higher than levels traditionally recorded in January.
 
View the full report here: January 2022 Statistics Report